I think I’ve posted on this before .At the moment 30 economists have written to the Times with one outlook and 60 others have written with another outlook , supposedly in opposition to the previous economists.Cue jokes about economists who can’t agree over anything.
( BBC joke …If you lined all the economists end to end in a line , you would still not reach a conclusion .
my favourite is …three economists go hunting deer…one aims…misses to the right ..next aims …misses to the left…the third …exclaims…”we got IT!”…)
Actually …markets are unknowable because knowledge itself alters the market.Therefore widely desseminated knowledge would widely alter the market..hence there can not be a consensus.If there is…it will fail to come exactly right.
If we all knew exactly how economic indicators were going to behave , we would all go out and purchase financial instruments to take advantage of that and that itself would alter the result.
No comments:
Post a Comment